2008 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

April 9, 2008
Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray
Colorado State University

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008

• 15 Named Storms
• 80 Named Storm Days
• 8 Hurricanes
• 40 Hurricane Days
• 4 Intense Hurricanes

Probabilities for at least one major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) landfall on each of the following coastal areas:

1. Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2. U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
3. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
4. Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane season. Both of our early April predictors call for a very active hurricane season in 2008. The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic is a pattern typically observed before very active seasons. Waters off the coast of Iberia as well as the eastern tropical Atlantic are very warm right now (Figure 6). The Azores High has also been quite weak during the month of March. Typically, a weakened Azores High leads to weaker trade winds that enhance warm SST anomalies due to reduced levels of evaporation, mixing and upwelling in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

FKDC Launches an All Hazards Education Program

Friday, August 3, 2007
To NW7 Facility Administrators:

The Florida Kidney Disaster Coalition (FKDC) is pleased to announce an exciting opportunity for disaster education. This series of faxblasts will inform Floridians about disasters that are likely to happen in our area. There are more everyday dangers to Florida than just hurricanes!

You will receive one “All-Hazards Educational Series” faxblast every week. If you miss a fax, check the FKDC website (www.fmqai.com/ESRD/FKDC) to download them as they become available. Compile each faxblast in a notebook. When the series is complete, you will have a complete all-hazards handbook.

Facilities are encouraged to complete the pre-quiz. It is a short, ten question quiz about disasters that are likely to happen in Florida. Following the series, FKDC will issue a post-quiz. Each facility completing and returning the pre-quiz and the post-quiz will receive an achievement certificate!

You should receive the first faxblast on Monday, August 20. You will get a new hazard topic each week until December 17th. After the series is complete, you should have 15 topics in your folder. There will not be any topics for the weeks of September 3rd (Labor Day), November 12th (Veterans Day) or November 19th (Thanksgiving).

Topics will include hazardous materials, radiological emergencies, disaster basics, terrorism, pandemics, floods, tropical storms, hurricanes, post-storm safety, and more!

Complete the attached pre-quiz and fax it back. Be sure to include your provider number, name of your facility, a contact person, and a contact telephone number.

Start receiving the All-Hazards Educational Series faxblasts. If you miss a week, check the FKDC website to download a copy. Compile each topic into a folder.

When the series is complete, fill out and return the post-quiz to receive your certificate!

Being knowledgeable and prepared and can be easy and fun. Join FKDC in raising awareness about all the Florida disasters. For more information or questions, please call us at (813) 383-1530 and ask for Sherilyn Burris (extension 3267) or Sally Gore (extension 3266) at or visit us at http://www.fmqai.com/library/attachment-library/All_Hazards.pdf

Local dialysis patients learn what to do In threat of hurricane (Liz Freeman, naplesnews.com)

Local dialysis patients learn what to do in threat of hurricane

NaplesNews.com story by Liz Freeman, Friday, June 8, 2007

http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2007/jun/08/local_dialysis_patients_learn_what_do_threat_hurri/?breaking_news


Sophia Hadley doesn’t fret about how she would get her dialysis treatment if all hell breaks loose with a hurricane striking Southwest Florida.

That’s because the 36-year-old is a patient at Naples Artificial Kidney Center, 3699 Airport-Pulling Road N., where the center’s social worker sits down with each patient before the June 1 start of hurricane season. The social worker goes over a detailed pre- and post-storm response plan, to assure patients that they will not go without their lifesaving dialysis, necessary three times a week.

“When hurricane season comes, they give us a list of things we need, they give us ideas of what we should eat and a list of the medicines and list with our (treatment) type,” said Hadley, who has been on dialysis 12 years.

Owned by the national company, Fresenius Medical Care North America, the Naples center and its other Southwest Florida affiliates have revamped their disaster plans since Hurricane Katrina, aiming to address the needs of both patients and employees so their dialysis operations can carry on.

A national competitor in the region, DaVita Inc., which has dialysis centers in Fort Myers and Naples, similarly has detailed hurricane plans.

The Florida Kidney Disaster Coalition has focused on developing a comprehensive disaster preparedness plan to address the needs of the 26,000 Floridians with kidney failure who require dialysis, said Sarah Knott, head social worker for Fresenius at the company’s office in Tampa. Knott previously worked in the company’s Southwest Florida clinics.

“The Kidney Disaster Coalition is to make sure all units, not just Fresenius, are prepared for hurricanes,” she said.

Besides the one-on-one sessions with each patient, Fresenius operates a toll-free number that is staffed 12 hours a day so patients and members of their families can locate a dialysis center near their place of evacuation and will make arrangements with the alternative site.

If a patient plans to go to a special-needs shelter, the clinics will register their patients with Collier County Emergency Management for the special-needs shelter, she said.

Before any of the dialysis centers shut down while a storm approaches, every patient undergoes a session, even if it is not his or her regular dialysis day.“So everyone is in good shape,” Knott said.

The centers don’t arrange for transportation but will coordinate transportation through the county for those who don’t have the means to get to a center after a storm. That was the case for some patients after Hurricane Wilma hit southern Collier County on Oct. 24, 2005.

“After Wilma, (the county) was very good about it,” she said. “They brought the patients to dialysis.”

In Fort Lauderdale, the Fresenius-owned Florida Kidney Center was the only dialysis center operational after Wilma in the region, taking in individuals from dialysis clinics run by other companies, she said.

All Fresenius-owned centers have generators that kick in when the electricity goes out and all have arrangements for water tank trucks to come on site and connect to a center’s water treatment system, said Todd Parker, the company’s regional technical manager for North Florida.

“We ran that way for a week right after Wilma at the Naples Artificial Kidney Center,” Knott said. “We took care of some patients from Clewiston and Belle Glade.”

Each generator runs $60,000 to $90,000 and each water hook-up system for the trucked-in tanks runs $500, Parker said.

In addition, the company has a logistics center at a warehouse with supplies and six recreational vehicles that can be sent to hurricane-damaged communities to house clinic employees whose homes have been damaged, he said.

“Previously we have put them right on the site (of the clinics),” Parker said of the RVs. “So we can take care of our own. Our focus is to get as much ready for recovery to create a little command center.”

DaVita Inc., which has five clinics in Fort Myers and one in Naples, likewise enhanced its hurricane plans after Katrina, said David McKenzie, a division vice president at the company’s Los Angeles headquarters.

“We have a little over 100 dialysis centers in the state of Florida,” he said.All patients are educated about the plan before the storm and all are given a wrist band with a toll-free number to call to get help and find out the nearest center that is open, he said. Patients are encouraged to evacuate if they can.

The larger clinics have permanent generators and there are 15 generators that can be trucked in to smaller clinics that have lost power, he said. The company has arrangements for water to be brought in but that hasn’t been a problem during the past storms in Florida.

“During a disaster, we literally take in all-comers — we don’t care where they come from,” he said. “Billing is not relevant at that time.”

Hadley, the Naples resident who is a patient at Fresenius-owned Naples Artificial Kidney Center, remembers her experience before and after Wilma. She didn’t evacuate and stayed in her Golden Gate home.

She received a dialysis session on Sunday, the day before Wilma made landfall, and had her next dialysis on Wednesday. By then, the center was off its generator and back on normal power.

“They assured us everything would be OK and prepared us,” she said. “I felt confident.”

She feels the same going into hurricane season now.

“Oh yes, I’m confident nothing will happen without reason,” she said. “I’m prepared.”

Emergency Communications Kit

June 4, 2007

As every Floridian is aware, June 1st marked the beginning of the 2007 Hurricane Season. As providers begin reviewing their disaster plans and educating patients and staff, the Florida Kidney Disaster Coalition (FKDC) would like to assist by providing tools that address a key component of disaster preparedness and response: communication. This week, an “Emergency Communications Kit” will be mailed to all Florida renal social workers in an effort to supplement their resources for emergency preparedness.

Communication is an integral part of day-to-day life, however it takes on an even more critical role during times of emergencies or disasters. Emergency situations will occur regardless of whether or not a community is prepared for them and having established partnerships with pre-identified methods of communication can greatly enhance the ability to respond in a timely and efficient manner.

While each emergency event may preclude different procedures, the common denominator in every plan is the need to communicate and respond to appropriate agencies, such as Emergency Management, utility companies, police and patients. In all types of emergency situations, the ability to respond in a prompt and effective manner can help to reduce trauma, decrease disorder, and, especially for dialysis patients, can even be the shaping factor between life and death.

Communication and patient safety during emergencies should not be compromised by the time it takes to figure out which key personnel should be contacted and how to contact them. The tools in this Emergency Communications Kit have been developed to assist providers in reducing the uncertainty in pre and post emergency communication and to increase providers’ ability to communicate with key stakeholders promptly and effectively in emergency situations.

Please remember, these materials are not intended to replace any corporate Policies and Procedures, but to serve as a resource guide that complements internal disaster plans. All of the Toolkit documents are also available for download on the FKDC website at www.fmqai.com/ESRD/FKDC/. We hope that you will encourage your social workers to utilize these materials to foster effective communication practices that will help to ensure the safety and care of all kidney patients

Sincerely,
Kelly M. Mayo, MS
Project Director
FKDC Member

June 1: Hurricane Season 2007

Welcome to the Florida Kidney Disaster Coalition (FKDC) blog.

Today is the start of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today is also the first day of the Florida Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday. This tax-free holiday lasts until June 12 so make sure to stock up on batteries, flashlights, coolers and other supplies now. For a list of qualifying items, visit http://dor.myflorida.com/dor/tips/pdf/tip07a01-04.pdf

Remember, the National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) predicts 13-17 named storms this year, and estimates that 3-5 major hurricanes will strike somewhere along the U.S. coast. A "major hurricane" is defined as a Category 3 or higher, meaning it has winds greater than 111 miles per hour.