2008 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

April 9, 2008
Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray
Colorado State University

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008

• 15 Named Storms
• 80 Named Storm Days
• 8 Hurricanes
• 40 Hurricane Days
• 4 Intense Hurricanes

Probabilities for at least one major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) landfall on each of the following coastal areas:

1. Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2. U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
3. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
4. Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane season. Both of our early April predictors call for a very active hurricane season in 2008. The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic is a pattern typically observed before very active seasons. Waters off the coast of Iberia as well as the eastern tropical Atlantic are very warm right now (Figure 6). The Azores High has also been quite weak during the month of March. Typically, a weakened Azores High leads to weaker trade winds that enhance warm SST anomalies due to reduced levels of evaporation, mixing and upwelling in the eastern tropical Atlantic.