NOAA Still Expects Active Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops

The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.

NOAA also announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin):

• 14 to 20 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 12 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 4 to 6 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared to the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.

“All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “As we’ve seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record.”

Be prepared for the hurricane season with important information available online at hurricanes.gov/prepare and at FEMA’s ready.gov.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.

Tropical Depression 3

11am Eastern Time

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DHS Launches "See Something, Say Something" Campaign

Department of Homeland Secretary’s (DHS) Janet Napolitano launched the first phase of DHS' nationwide "See Something, Say Something" campaign and announced a new national information-sharing partnership with Amtrak as part of the Department's Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative during a whistlestop train tour—highlighting the public's role in keeping our country safe and the Obama administration's commitment to bolstering surface transportation security.

"Implementing a national suspicious activity reporting partnership with Amtrak and expanding the 'See Something, Say Something' campaign strengthens our ability to guard against terrorism and crime," said Secretary Napolitano. "These initiatives enable us to provide frontline security personnel with the latest information and intelligence to recognize behaviors and indicators associated with new and evolving threats."

In the coming months, DHS will expand the "See Something, Say Something" campaign nationally with public education materials, advertisements and other outreach tools to continue engaging travelers, businesses, community organizations, and public and private sector employees to remain vigilant and play an active role in keeping our country safe.

In support of DHS’s “See Something, Say Something” Campaign, FEMA’s Individual and Community Preparedness Division has partnered with the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) to research how to improve the public’s response to suspicious activity. FEMA and IACP plan to present on the research findings and recommendations at the IACP Annual Conference in late October.

Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill: is my drinking water safe?

Drinking Water

Is my drinking water safe?

Is my water safe to drink?
The oil spill is not currently expected to affect drinking water. The closest drinking water intake in use in Southeastern Louisiana on the Mississippi River is 49 miles upstream from the mouth of the river. The oil is not expect to migrate that far upstream. If you have any concerns about your water, contact your water utility.

Will my private well be impacted by the oil spill?
No. The oil sheen is not expected to impact domestic wells.

How will I know if my water isn't safe to drink?
Your water supplier must notify you by newspaper, mail, radio, TV, or hand-delivery if your water doesn't meet EPA or state standards or if there is a waterborne disease emergency. The notice will describe any precautions you need to take, such as boiling your water. Follow the advice of your water supplier if you ever receive such a notice.

My water tastes or smells different. What should I do?
If you have any concerns about your water, you should contact your water supplier. The oil spill is not expected to affect drinking water. If your water supply does not meet EPA or state standards your water supplier must notify you by newspaper, mail, radio, TV, or hand-delivery.

Deepwater Horizon Response Unified Command (BP Gulf oil spill response)

http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/

Hurricane Forecasts

Colorado State University meteorologists are continuing to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. There are eight hurricanes predicted for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, with four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

For more information on Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray's forecast, visit: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2010/april2010/apr2010.pdf

For more information on the National Hurricane Center's changes and updates to this year's hurricane forecasts, visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nhc_new_2010.pdf